22 Aug
How the undecideds decide - Cosmic Log - msnbc.com
This study purports to have found a method to predict how “undecided” voters will really vote by examining their reactions to images and how quickly the test subjects associated these images with negative or positive words.
There is a kind of implicit cynicism in this sort of thing—as if the assumption by these researchers is that when you say you are undecided, we know you aren’t really undecided. But my biggest problem with the underlying thesis is that this sort of predictive measure might work in a vacuum—i.e., if the “undecided” subject is exposed to no further stimuli or mitigating factors, then these reactions predict “x.” However, my time spent on the day job tells me that no such vacuum exists—and that a vague, subconscious positive association for a candidate is just waiting to be swift-boated in the keyster and turned around 180 degrees. An “October Surprise” can similarly scrub out unspoken reservations about a candidate.
So I guess that while the method is intriguing, I suspect its accuracy improves the closer you get to Election day, and is probably best done the day before the election, when all the undecideds really have left to go on is their gut.
